Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading fractionally to 1 1/2 cents higher at midday. The release for this week’s EIA report is pushed back until Thursday due to today’s Day of Mourning for former President George H.W Bush. News today is limited. Ahead of next Tuesday’s monthly S&D update, analysts are expecting US corn 18/19 carryout at 1.738 bbu, just 2 mbu more than their November projection. DTN reported a national average cash price of $3.45 1/2 on Tuesday evening, 36 cents higher than a year ago. That put the national average basis level at -26 3/4 cents, the strongest this marketing year (MY).

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.75 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.85 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

May 19 Corn is at $3.92 1/2, up 1 cent

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.98 3/4, up 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 2 to 3 1/4 cents in the green on Wednesday. Nearby soy meal is down 50 cents/ton, with soy oil 5 point higher. We will have USDA Export Sales data on Friday morning this week due to today’s National day of Mourning. The average trade estimate for US 18/19 soybean ending stocks in next week’s WASDE report calls for a 10 mbu reduction to 945 mbu according to a Reuters survey. That would be assuming an adjustment to the demand side, as USDA typically waits until January to make any moves to the production number.

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.15, up 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.27, up 3 1/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.39 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.51 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal is at $312.20, down $0.50

Dec 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.69, up $0.05

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are down 2 to 5 cents at midday. Traders are estimating USDA to add 7 mbu to their 18/19 US carryout projection at 956 on next Tuesday’s December WASDE release. Traders continue to doubt whether the US can achieve the growth in export sales currently in the balance sheet. Sales and shipments still lag last year with 6 months completed. Along with USDA delaying the weekly Export sales report to Friday, CFTC will be releasing their weekly Commitment of Traders report on Monday. Egypt’s GASC has failed to issue letters of credit on 945,000 MT or 16 cargoes of wheat all purchased for mid-Nov to mid-Dec delivery. Some of the letters may not be issued until January. Most of that was from Russia.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.15 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.83 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.85, down 2 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are up 30 to 60 cents on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are 25 to 97.5 cents in the green at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.13 on December 3 at $146.72. Wholesale beef prices were lower on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were down 12 cents at $213.75, with the Select cutout value 43 cents lower at $197.08. USDA’s estimated FI cattle slaughter is at 240,000 head WTD, up 4,000 head from last week and up 2,000 head from a year ago. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw sales on all 219 head offered, with the two lots selling @ $117.50-118.

Dec 18 Cattle are at $118.175, up $0.400,

Feb 19 Cattle are at $122.050, up $0.400,

Apr 19 Cattle are at $123.475, up $0.575,

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.375, up $0.975

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.725, up $0.875

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.650, up $0.750

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are mostly triple digits higher on Wednesday with nearby Dec down 77.5 cents, as it needs to stick close to cash ahead of next week’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 2 cents from the previous day @ $56.38 on December 3. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.62 on Wednesday morning at $72.50. The national base cash hog carcass value was up 78 cents this morning at an average weighted price of $49.43. USDA’s FI hog slaughter was estimated at 478,000 head for Tuesday, with Monday’s revised down to 467,000 head, bringing the WTD total to 945,000 head. That was up 30,000 head from last week and 13,000 head larger than the same week last year.

Dec 18 Hogs are at $56.100, down $0.775,

Feb 19 Hogs are at $67.475, up $1.425

Apr 19 Hogs are at $72.100, up $1.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are showing sharp 85 to 124 point gains at midday, in hopes that China follows through with the commitments to buy more US ag goods. The Cotlook A index was 100 points higher than the previous day on Dec 3 at 87.80 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 67.92 cents/lb through Thursday. The Cert stocks level as of December 4 was at 140,322 bales. There were deliveries of another 77 contracts against December overnight, all stopped by an SG Americas client.

Mar 19 Cotton is at 81.05, up 124 points

May 19 Cotton is at 82, up 105 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 82.740, up 85 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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