Free Markets for Free Men. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/14/19

Good Morning! We kickoff the day with EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M. and Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M. while August Grains and Lean Hogs expire today with Hogs cash settlement. This week showed that the American Petroleum Institute and the USDA should be embarrassed with the numbers released this week. It is almost as if they have a horse in the race the way they gathered their data and the releasement was an unfunny joke as well. Way back when the API was an independent gauge of weekly Energy stockpiles and since they went public they delay the time of the reports release except to those who purchase their data. They would release the data at precisely at 3:30 P.M. every Tuesday as advertised. Not the case anymore. While the USDA called for polls and did not do their own investigating which again the accuracy is in question putting it mildly. I have a novel approach, if you’re not going to do your job, don’t released skewed data! Also talking to one of my farmers in Illinois he mentioned we have a service which uses satellites and they are much more accurate in acreage and even yields compared to the USDA and if we went by that data we would have a 2 billion bushel shortfall on Corn which would have Corn locked limit-up at least for five days. I do believe the doom in gloom in the Energies and Stocks this morning are done to the economic numbers in China which missed on all cylinders last night and amazingly they want to come back to the trade talks earlier than September. Germany’s GDP had contracted for the second time in a row. Kind of reminds me of the past U.S. administration.

Getting back to Corn we are hoping that 363 holds basis December on the charts In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently pulling back from the highs as we get closer to the open out-cry session. The December contract is currently trading at 379 which is 2 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 381 to 376 ¾. Eventually the truth will set you free and when we find the cupboard actually bare what report will feed the masses?

On the Ethanol front the September contract is currently trading at 1.290 which is .002 higher. The trading range has been 1.290 to 1.262. The market is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.288 and 1 offer @ 1.297 with 4 contracts traded and Open Interest at 539 contracts.

On the Crude Oil front the market is coming back from the lows and the fear is more on the economic setback in China and Germany which should be short-lived if they want to practice fair, free and open trade. We still know that inventories are short and demand is still up and the EIA will release their data at 9:30 A.M. and I am expecting draws.  In the overnight electronic session the September Crude Oil is currently treading at 5552 which is 158 points lower. The trading range has been 5685 to 5490.

On the Natural Gas front the market is trading a tad higher with excessive heat in the south and southwest as we move closer to shoulder season. The September contract is currently trading at 2.162 which is 1 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 2.203 to 2.147.

Have a Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn