Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed steady to 1 3/4 cents lower in most contracts on Monday. USDA reported a private export sale of 651,670 MT of corn to Mexico this morning, with 590,820 for 19/20 and 60,850 MT for 20/21. Low prices cure low prices! That said, export inspections were lousy @ 590,013 MT during the week that ended on September 5, with 449,958 MT of that leaving ports during the new MY. That total was a jump of 64.91% from the previous week but still down 24.7% from last year. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed that 55% of the US corn crop was dented by Sunday vs. the 77% average, with 11% reported as mature (24% avg). Condition ratings were down 3% to 55% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 index was down 6 points to 347. The average trade production guess for Thursday’s report is 13.672 billion bushels, with the analysts on average estimating USDA will drop yield 2.3 to 167.2 bpa.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $3.40 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.54 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $3.67 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, down 3/4 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures were steady in the front 3 contracts, with most 19/20 contracts within a penny of unch. Soybean meal was up $1.30/ton, with soy oil 22 points lower. Crop Progress data showed 92% of the US soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday compared to the 99% average. NASS also reported conditions nearly unch at 55% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index rising 2 points to 350 on an improvement in the poorer rated crop areas. USDA tallied a total of 906,029 MT of soybeans exported in the week of 9/5, with 501,778 MT shipped after Sep 1. That was down 29.79% from the previous week and 2.3% lower than the same week last year. Of the total 408,772 MT was headed to China. The average trade guess for US soy production on Thursday is 3.577 billion bushels, as yield is seen down 1.3 from August to 47.2 bpa. Customs data from China shows imports of 9.45 MMT of soybeans during August, up 3.6% from last year and 12.26% larger than July.

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.45, unch,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.57 3/4, unch,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.72, unch,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $8.85 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal closed at $288.50, up $1.30,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.26, down $0.22

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures saw 2 to 10 3/4 cent gains in most contracts on Monday, with traders covering shorts ahead of Thursday’s USDAs reports. The afternoon Crop Progress report showed the spring wheat crop 71% harvested as of Sunday, with the normal pace at 87%. All wheat shipments in the week of September 5 were tallied at 402,486 MT. That was a drop of 27.94% from the previous week and 8.86% lower than the same week last year. Australia’s ABARES cut their 19/20 wheat production estimate by 2.7 MMT from their previous estimate to 21.9 MMT. Saudi Arabia bought 780,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat over the weekend. Most of the contracts specified EU, N+S America or Australia, with 1 permitting Black Sea if it can meet the damage specification.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.74 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.98, up 4 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.96 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the Monday session with front months 32.5 to 67.5 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were down 52.5 cents to $1.575 in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 59 cents lower on September 6 at $137.77. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 36 cents at $226.95, with Select boxes 2 cents lower @ $201.92. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter @ 115,000. That is down 4,000 head from the same week a year ago.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $94.200, down $0.675,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $99.175, down $0.575,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $106.075, down $0.325,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $132.825, down $0.525

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $129.825, down $1.075

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $128.800, down $1.575

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted 90 cent to $2.575 losses in the front months on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 56 cents at $64.69 on September 5. The Fresh Bacon Index was down $33.44 from the previous week on Sep 6 at $145.50. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was down $1.41 on Monday afternoon at $71.91. The ham, up $1.23, was the only primal reported higher. The national average base hog value was $1.42 lower at $50.69. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 485,000 head for Monday, even with the same week in 2018. The Philippines also now has confirmed cases of ASF for the first time. China has announced a subsidy program to help construct new large scale hog farms in order to help build up the world’s largest hog herd following the ASF outbreak.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $62.600, down $0.900,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $59.950, down $2.525

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $68.275, down $2.575

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures ended the Monday session with most contracts 24 to 47 points higher to start the week. After the close, the weekly Crop Progress report indicated that 43% of the US cotton crop had bolls open as of 9/8 vs. the 37% average. Harvest was tallied at 7% complete 1% faster than normal. Conditions were shown falling 5% to 43% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index dropping 13 points to 328. The Cotlook A Index was up 100 points on September 6 at 70.65 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is now 51.57, and still below loan rate.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 59.2, up 47 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 58.94, up 36 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 59.56, up 25 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 60.3, up 24 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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